We are one day out from some messy weather. In this report I outline in more detail the timing of events and their associated impacts.
A LOOK AT THE STORM NOW
The storm is currently set up in the southern plains right now and is disconnecting from the upper-level flow and transferring to a surface low south. Even though the storm is close, it will continue to move south and east at a slow pace drawing on the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. By tomorrow it will have rounded its turn and head north. By this point its path will be clear.
TEMPERATURES
I am sure you all are feeling the cold air that built in last night with the gusty winds. The air mass is here and will settle in for the storm.
TEMPERATURE SET UP SUNDAY 2 PM
The cold air in place today will make its way even further south tonight. This will allow for a significant "cold air damming" scenario caused by the mountains and outlined by the dotted blue lines. While the cold air is trapped, competing south easterly winds whip around the storm from the ocean slowly taking over the cold air mass in place. Strong warm winds flowing over cold air is the reason behind our messy storm.
ANIMATION OF STORM MOVEMENT
The black dot is the center of Carroll County
You can see the quick changeover from snow to sleet to freezing to rain and then perhaps some wrap around snow on the back end.
TIMELINE OF EVENTS
Pan through the images with the arrows
We will begin around 3 PM on Sunday with heavy snow building in around 5 PM. Snow willl come down heavy and hard. This will switch over to sleet and freezing rain by 8 PM. Freezing rain will persist through the night until midnight or so. It will get warmer, and rain will fall until switching over to snow showers Monday morning. The hardest part of this forecast is picking out when precipitation switches over to another form. We will get better insight and hopefully confirmation as the storm enters the region tomorrow and I can monitor the system and its tendencies.
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
SNOW ON GROUND MONDAY MORNING
Accounting for melting overnight
The most significant snow will happen between 5 - 8 PM tomorrow for many areas creating dangerous travel Sunday evening to night. I expect the 1-3 region to get 3 or 4 inches of snow with some washing away by morning.
Freezing Rain
There will be around a quarter inch of ice that will accumulate between 8 PM and Midnight. The models have a tendency to underestimate how long the cold air holds. Moreover, with snowpack on the ground, I expect below freezing temps until 1 or 2 am. That leaves A LOT of potential for freezing rain. Trees will be weighed down along with power lines. I don't expect many people to be traveling at this time, but it will be dangerous on the roads.
Winds
The storm will be rapidly intensifying, and winds will be howling. It will become increasingly windy tomorrow with gusts up to 50 mph around midnight. These types of winds paired with freezing rain is an extremely dangerous combination. Already weighed down trees and power lines are now even more likely to fall.
CHANGES POSSIBLE
This is a marginal situation. Changes are still possible in the storm track. The storm has yet to start its initial intensification and round its turn north. Once that happens, its path towards us will be decided. Until then, there is still some wiggle room.
Thank you! This is great information!