Week in Weather - A Break in the Cold

I think we all have gotten used to the cold weather and forgotten how impressive the past few weeks have been. These past few weeks have been much colder than what we've been used to relative to the past few years and to the 50-year average.

Last week, I talked about how a change in our weather pattern would come in the beginning of February. I go in detail in this post here - 1/25/2022 - Storm - Pattern Shift (inglisbri.wixsite.com). The latter half of the post outlined two types of weather patterns showing both ends of the spectrum.

We will not get a complete change in pattern like the models suggested a weak ago. Rather, we will get a weaker version of what we have been getting lately. The cold plunges of air will be weaker and will not reach as far south as they have been.

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THEN vs NOW

THEN

Every several days we were getting deep blasts of cold air coming down from Canada. Throughout the latter half of the month, our temperatures were generally cold and at times frigid. Naturally, one would think this would bring more snow for our region, however, it was so cold that most of the storm tracks were too far south. Places like the Carolinas, Virginia, and southern Maryland have gotten more snow this season than central Maryland. WINTER SNOWFALL AND GENERAL JET STREAM PATTERN

Look at just how much of the country has experienced snow this winter, especially in the southeast. You can also see how southern PA and northern MD have less snow than surrounding areas north and south. This is due to a more southern Jet Stream from the cold weather pattern. Our area is too far north to be affected by any of the coastal storm tracks and were too far south to be affected by any clipper systems. In order to get more snow, we need the storms to stop missing us south and off the coast like they have been. Just like the one on Friday.

NEXT TWO WEEKS OR SO

Cold air from Canada will come down less often and be less severe for our region. In short, we will start to experience a more normal winter. This means the jet stream will be less severe and will even out (fewer extreme troughs and ridges). Rather than diving way south of our region, it will be situated closer to our area more often, putting us in the brunt of more storms. However, with a scarcer supply of cold air, instead of always being on the cold side of the storm like we have been, we will be closer to the rain/snow line. Some storms we might be all rain, others a mix, and others completely snow, but we will get more precipitation.

NEXT STORM

The next storm on Thursday into Friday will track along a cold front of a system centered in Canada. This means we will get a warmup on Thursday and Friday then severe cold over the weekend. This is similar to the event we had on January 20th, Snow Update (inglisbri.wixsite.com), where we had rain which changed over to snow in the morning; schools closed when they didn't need to.

It is too far out to get into the subtilties and timing of if and when rain switches over to a mix and how much of an impact there will be during the day and overnight.

I believe this event will bring a lot of rain Thursday and Friday then mixing during the day into Friday night. Temperatures will dwindle overnight and with ample wind, roads will ice up. Whether or not roads will ice up during the day is up for grabs right now, but it is unlikely.