Yet another snow chance this weekend! Fortunately, it seems that the timing of the event will limit travel impacts for many. This event seems to be limited to late Friday night into Early Saturday Morning. There is still some uncertainty with the intensity of the event which I will get into below.
Event Summary
NAM simulation of the storm
A weak system rides eastward across southern Maryland along a boundary of cold upper-level air. There is enough vorticity and upper level winds to force a period of precipitation to form for the region.
This will be an all-snow event beginning around midnight for those in Central Maryland. Snow will be of moderate intensity and will fall until the morning hours on Saturday Morning. Temperatures will be around 30 degrees and grassy surfaces and roads will support accumulation of 1-3 inches for the general area. There will be an area of enhanced snow totals (2-4 inches), although there is uncertainty between the models of where this might be.
Model Uncertainty
4 AM Snapshot EMCWF vs GFS vs NAM - All Snow event, green shows precipitation intensity
The EMCWF model produces the strongest storm with a low-pressure closer coast at a pressure of 1002 mb while the GFS produces a weaker storm to the south at a pressure of 1006 mb and the NAM fits produces a mix of these outputs. These differences in strength and placement of the low will be the deciding factor of the upper limits of snowfall and where the bullseye for this event will be.
For the weather geeks, the reason for the differences in storm strength and path is due to a how models are projecting the trough of cold air. Models like the EMCWF are producing a deeper and more curved trough of cold air while models like the GFS have weaker and less curved trough of cold air. This "curvature" is responsible for dragging air up ahead of the storm and enhancing precipitation.
Model trends are favoring the EMCWF interpretation of a stronger storm!
Range of Snow Totals
Snow Totals 12Z Run
General 1-3 inches
Snow Totals 18 Z Run (More Recent)
Widespread 2-4 with some areas up to 5 inches
My Snowfall Forecast
There is consensus between the newer model runs that agrees with a more intense storm like what the European model plotted out earlier today. I am waiting on the most recent GFS run to confirm all the models have hopped on the snow train. But for now, it seems like a general 1-3 inches with a swath of 2-4 or even up to 5 inches which will lay across the general Maryland region.
A weather map will be released tomorrow.
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