In this report I will
Go in more depth about the chance of snow for tomorrow
Review upper-level air pattern
Talk in depth about potential storms for the next week
GENERAL OUTLOOK: There is a chance of snow tomorrow afternoon into the evening. This snow is associated with a weak clipper system with little moisture. Usually, this type of storm would dry up after going over the mountains, however this system will have support from fast upper-level winds and vorticity.
WHAT: Accumulations will be between a dusting and a half inch of snow. Our area will likely see snow showers with some isolated heavier pockets. With temperatures so cold the past few days, the ground is frozen. Roads will easily become coated where these snow showers track.
WHEN: 3 PM Sunday - 9 PM Sunday
IMPACTS: There will not be much snow falling but roads will become slick. Fortunately, I know that a lot of roads are covered in smashed salt which will help melt any snowfall.
RADAR SIMULATION
1 PM - 11 PM
This shows reflectance or intensity of precipitation and does not differentiate between rain and snow. This will be all snow for our region. I know the video is fast moving but you can see the disorganized sporadic nature of this event that falls apart over our region.
I wanted to emphasize yet again the upper air pattern we are under that is bringing us cold air, light clipper systems, and gives us a good chance for larger storms. Click below to visit my post on the upper air pattern.
If you clicked above or have read that post already, you would be dying to hear an update on the potential weather systems for January 25-26 and January 30-31.
JANUARY 25-26
This event is less than four days out and there is still divergence among the different models. With subtle events like this one, a small detail can make a huge difference in the outcome.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: Just like the disturbance we will experience tomorrow; this storm is associated with a boundary of an upper air trough, although a little more complicated. With this storm, energy originating from the Gulf of Mexico is plotted to to phase (join) with this trough. In other words, energy and moisture teaming up with cold air and more energy. The question is, when, where, and will this phasing even happen?
WHAT: I can give two scenarios.
1. I say it is more likely that this storm does not shape up and we will experience unimpactful light precipitation, rain or snow. Backed by GFS, GEM, and EURO model
2. It is unlikely that the storm does form, and the systems do phase. If so, we will experience heavier and prolonged precipitation, capable of impacts
WHEN: Tuesday Evening
IMPACTS: Low if no impact. Even if the storm does form, we will be too close to the rain/snow line for me to say anything concrete as of now. However, there is some potential.
RADAR SIMULATION NAM vs GEM vs GFS
Tuesday 7 PM
The dotted blue line is the upper air boundary where a storm and precipitation are most likely to form. A more tilted boundary as in the NAM is a sign of a storm and circulation.
The NAM has two systems merging together along the tilted upper air boundary. This could be an impactful storm. The NAM is a shorter-range model and should be given some value.
The GEM has some light precipitation forming along its boundary, but the two systems never merge. This GEM RDPS model is also a shorter-range model and should be given some value.
The GFS is in agreement with the GEM but has a lower resolution, so it seems less aggressive, while really, they are almost predicting the same nonexistent event.
JANUARY 30-31
I had talked about this date in the prior post because a few models had a strong storm forming up the east coast around these dates. All the models are detecting a lot of strong energy passing through our region at the end of the month in the form of one or even two separate storms. The models are too hectic and in disagreement over the potential storms, but I do have reason to believe the end of the month into February will be hectic weather-wise. These are all related to and are made possible by the upper air pattern that is in place sending deep upper-level troughs (cold air) into the eastern US.
Here is a look into the energy and storms that are possible to form.
GFS MODEL JAN 28 - FEB 1
Deep upper-level troughs are expected to dip down across the eastern US and send strong storms up the coast. The depth and placement of these troughs will determine the path of the storms.
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