We are finally seeing a lull in the action in terms of precipitation, however cold temperatures will persist in the area for at least the next week. It is hard to go unscathed by storm systems when the jet stream dips down this often and violently. We will get our storm soon enough. I do have my eye on a few disturbances over the next 10 days.
COLD TEMPERATURES & STORMS?
500 mb temperatures 1/21 - 1/31
You can see the day and time at the top left of the picture
This map shows the temperature of the upper air. Over the next ten days and even further out there are plenty of cold air masses diving and storms forming. There are numerous disturbances that will form along these boundaries, and some larger storms where moisture and upper-level energy coincide.
Here are a few dates I have my eye on. Check out Jan 25-26 and Jan 30 on the map above. I will go over the storms connected to the upper air boundary in more detail later in the post.
On January 25 - 26 you can see a strong upper air trough (cold air) dive south just west of our region. A storm should form on the ascending branch of this trough, the east side, into our region. Confidence level is low.
On Sunday January 30 - 31 at the end of the loop you can see a storm's circulation even at the upper levels in the eastern US, this is a sign of a developed powerful storm. One to keep an eye on. Confidence level is none - low.
Below is a collapsible list explaining upper air
Upper Air Map Explained
SUBSTANTIAL STORMS ON THE HORIZON IN MORE DETAIL
January 25th - 26th
This storm is within 5 days and a version of this storm will happen.
Two models verify this happening currently, GFS and GEM
This storm will form the same tricky way that our January 16th storm did. A cut-off upper-level low will merge back into the jet stream in our area and strengthen.
Just like the Jan 16th storm, it will be very complicated, things will have to line up and the track and strength will determine how much snow will fall and where.
January 31st
This storm is 10 days out and is not worth much thought at this point.
It is a large strong storm and is verified by three models, the GFS, GEM, and the EUROPEAN
It is way too far out in time to put any stake in.
I do not show you these model runs and storms to trick you into thinking these storms will occur and Maryland will get snow.
I show these storms as POSSIBILITIES.
These storms are signs that we are still in the vicinity of storm tracks and energy.
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