Current Weather
We are in an area of high pressure today bringing calm weather today. We are also just inside the reach of the cold air brought down from Canada from the most recent storm. In the coming days, conditions will change as another storm in the Midwest pulls eastward bringing warming temperatures, a cold front, rain and snow.
UPPER AIR
850 mb temperature anomaly
The storm affecting us Thursday is in the Midwest towards the top center portion of the picture designated by an L.
Low pressure systems spin counterclockwise, and you can see how this spin affects temperatures around the storm.
You can see the really warm air being pulled from the south to the east in front the system. You can also see really cold air being funneled down on the backside of the storm from Canada.
This boundary just southwest of the L between the advancing cold air and the warm sector of this storm will bring our weather on Wednesday night into Thursday.
BIG PICTURE VS SMALL PICTURE (TOGGLE THROUGH)
Here is a look at how the disturbance will be set up.
The storm to our north is bringing frigid temperatures behind its cold front which stretches all the way to the south. We will experience warmer than average temperatures ahead of the storm on Wednesday followed by this strong cold front initially bringing rain switching over to snow as cold air rapidly fills in.
TIMELINE
8 - 11 PM - We will begin with rain on Wednesday night.
5-7 AM - Rain will switch to snow as cold air rushes in
Snow will be most heavy right as it switches over from northwest to southeast between 5 and 9 AM for most areas.
Temperatures will drop below freezing soon after the snow falls. The snow will be moderate and gradually lighten up and end shortly after noon.
Temperatures will be drop and remain in the 20s for the day
IMPACTS
A low impact event where most of Central Maryland will be affected. Areas north and west of Baltimore experiencing the most dangerous impacts due to an earlier switchover and colder temperatures.
Roads will be wet and above freezing as the snow begins. Snow will accumulate lightly on the roads.
There will be a layer of slush, then wet snow which will freeze as temperatures drop throughout the day. School closings and delays likely for counties in the 1–3-inch range, especially north and west where snow will start earlier or before sunrise.
Conditions will remain icy throughout the day.
LATER IN THE WEEK
There is divergence among the models and i have low confidence in any event over the weekend to impact our area significantly.
The European Model has one organized storm on Saturday barely clipping central Maryland but affecting southern Maryland. Meanwhile the GFS model has two storms, one Friday night and one Sunday morning.
Overall, the upper air troughs or boundaries that divides cold and warm air is setting up too far south and east at the moment. The troughs are weak and diving south too late. These disturbances are more than a few days out and are both worth keeping an eye on.
Even if a storm does form, the potential for an strong winter storm is low. The ingredients don't seem to be coming together.
GFS MODEL DEPICTION
1st image - Friday Night
2nd image - Sunday Morning
I will keep an eye on these disturbances and hope to see some agreement among the models.
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