Current Weather
This massive storm brings accumulating snow from Texas all the way to New York as brutal cold moves in behind the front.
Rain has been falling since midnight in Maryland and will continue to fall throughout the day as temperatures warm into tonight. Things have a chance to get dicey as the cold front moves into our region tomorrow morning; timing will be everything.
STORM DYNAMIC
Please visit this post, Lengthy Storm then Cold Over the Weekend (inglisbri.wixsite.com), so you can understand the dynamics and aspects of the storm. Where this storm sets up and its strength will determine how much warm air gets pushed up into Maryland and how fast cold air moves in. This storm is very fragile and has many many subtle details. I cannot emphasize enough how marginal temperatures will be. It could be 60 degrees in DC and below freezing along the Mason Dixon line. Just a few miles could mean tens of degrees difference.
TODAYS LOOK AT THE STORM
Yesterday, I feared that a stronger storm would bring warmer temperatures further north into Maryland and delay the cold front until just after sunrise. This situation looks most likely to play out.
TEMPERATURES - THE DEFINING TRAIT
Who gets freezing rain ultimately depends on how far south the freezing line reaches before 7 AM
Most recent package of model runs for 7 am
Most models have the freezing line stall in southern PA at 7 AM, the GFS being the outlier and more aggressive with the cold. Wherever the freezing line sets up at 7 AM it will stall there until advancing south in the afternoon causing a freeze up overnight.
This storm is too complex and too marginal to place certainty in these models. Models give us good guidance but with this one we will really just have to see for ourselves tonight and tomorrow morning how temperatures truly set up.
UPDATED LOOK AT FREEZING RAIN PROBABILITES
Freezing rain probability forecast for Friday
I have pushed the areas for freezing rain north. Model runs have been trending warmer. The freezing line will likely be contained to the PA line in the morning. Areas closer to the state boundary will have a better chance of being affected by freezing rain.
Throughout the day the cold will slowly make its way south, and below freezing temperatures will be widespread by evening.
The system could end with freezing rain for the areas in the 50/50 and possible zone.
TRAVEL IMPACTS
MORNING - At this time, I do not think there will be any travel impacts for most of Maryland tomorrow morning. I think freezing rain will be limited to along and north of the Mason- Dixon line. Morning temperatures are something to keep an eye on however.
AFTERNOON - There will be an increasing danger on the roads in the afternoon when temperatures will drop and sink below freezing from northwest to southeast. Everything will freeze up in the evening and night.
A FEW DEFINING QUESTIONS
How much warm air moves into our region before the storm?
I find it hard to believe temperatures could get into the 50s in Carroll County and lower sixties in some parts of Maryland. This could really lower chances for freezing rain in the morning.
And If temperatures really do get as warm as models suggest, can temperatures realistically fall below freezing by 7 AM?
I have my doubts, but this storm is a beast, and I wouldn't be surprised if it proves me wrong. Temperatures could really drop 20 degrees in six hours, I would love to see it.
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