As of yesterday, many forecasters, TV stations and weather apps are calling for snow Sunday into Monday, including myself. The storm is still four days out and model runs have been consistently placing its track right up our gut. This type of track is messy and is not exactly what snow lovers want. It would bring snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain then back to snow.
THE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR OUR REGION SUN-MON
This image is based off a storm track that goes right over Central Maryland which is most likely as of now.
Blue - All snow, moderate to heavy accumulation
Pink - Snow then mixed precipitation, light to moderate accumulation
Green - All rain, no snow accumulation
If the storm tracks further east, the region of snow gets pushed east into more of Maryland. On the other hand, if the storm tracks further west, expect less snow and more mixed precipitation and rain. You can check out my Instagram posts to see this storm track along with the expected regions of snowfall.
NOTHING IS SET IN STONE
I know what I just showed you is not the best scenario for snow lovers but there is still so much left to unfold and for the models to readjust. This storm has yet to even begin its journey across the country and has been pretty stagnant in the Pacific Ocean. That is why the models have been saying the same thing for the past day (4 model runs).
This storm will go through four extremely complex and variable processes in order for it to become this monster east coast storm. As this storm starts to progress and unfold, the models will adapt to how the storm is behaving and will alter its projected impacts on our region. Therefore, I expect the storm track into our region to be different.
Here is a look at how this storm will work its way towards us. The colored lines show its track where each color corresponds to a complex phase of the storm.
1/13-14 PHASE 1 - Energize - The storm merges with the jet stream and gains energy
1/14-15 PHASE 2 - CUT OFF - The storms leave the Jet stream and dives south
1/15-16 PHASE 3 - ORGANIZE - A surface low forms and pulling moisture and energy from the gulf
1/16-17 PHASE 4 - SHOWTIME - The storm advances north, strengthens and at some point, rejoins the jet stream
Each phase of the storm is extremely complex, and it is tough for the models to predict exactly how it will play out. So, as this storm progresses and each phase occurs, the models will evaluate exactly how the phase played out and will spit out updated and more accurate storm plots. Depending on how each phase plays out will affect the storms intensity and track.
GOING FORWARD
I expect the models to become more and more accurate in these coming days as the storm experiences each phase. I will post the model runs after each phase and keep you updated on the corresponding impacts. This storm has a lot left to be figured out keep your hopes up.
This is a great explanation!