Storm Update - More Sleet Less Snow

CURRENT WEATHER

6 AM to 8:30 AM Radar Reflectivity - Does not differentiate from snow and rain

The outskirts of the storm are passing over top of us now in the form of snow showers. These snow showers are actually evaporating into the drier atmosphere above (virga) and in turn cools the atmosphere (latent heat intake). This cooling of the atmosphere above supports the survival of snow from the clouds down to the surface at least for the beginning of the event.

WINTER STORM WARNING

The National Weather Service lessened the severity of the Winter Storm Warning from 3-6 inches of snow and ice to 2-4 inches of snow and ice. This is very plausible but I do fear that ice/sleet accumulation could end up being the dominant form of precipitation in some areas which would kill their snow totals. This is something I will aim to keep an eye on. Recent model runs indicate this happening - a brief period of snow and instead more sleet.

The National Weather Service have pulled back on their snow totals and now forecast similarly to what I had forecast the past two days.

9:12 AM Update - Most recent model runs indicate less snow and more sleet for the region!

IMPACT TIMES in areas under warning/advisories

Light Snow/Sleet begins between 9 AM and 10 AM

Snow/Sleet becomes most intense between 11 AM and 1 PM (Biggest Impact Times)

Snow completely changes to sleet/rain around 1 PM (Biggest Impact Times)

Mixed Precipitation switches to rain between 3 and 5 PM

Moderate snow/sleet rates will overwhelm some roads in Carroll County and other areas north and west of Baltimore. This slush will wash away with rain by late afternoon.

Areas around Baltimore, within the 695 loop and any area east of Baltimore should experience limited if any travel concerns.

Northern portions of Howard and Montgomery County could contain some slushy roads during the midday hours - be wary and cautious

Central and northern portions of Frederick Counties will experience slushy and snowy roads during the midday hours

Carroll County will experience rough travel during the midday hours, southern portions should remain wet while central and especially northern portions travel will be slushy, snowy and slick until the mid afternoon hours

High elevations and any areas near the Mason Dixon line will certainly experience travel concerns. If you are traveling near or into PA, be careful or wait to the late afternoon hours

SNOWFALL FORECAST STILL VALID

RAVENS STEELERS GAME

• Wet Tailgate - Sleet and Rain

• Heavy cold rain during game

• Not worth going in my opinion to see the Ravens lose

UNVIERSITY OF DELAWARE

• Brief period of snow around noon transitions to sleet then rain by mid afternoon

• Little to no accumulation and limited travel concern due to sleet

PHILADELPHIA

• Mostly a sleet/rain event

• Western and Northern suburbs should see a period of snow before mixing with sleet then changing to rain

BREWSTER NY for my friends up there

• Right on the snow rain line for the majority of the event

• Snow begins this evening and mixes with sleet and rain overnight at times before ending as snow Sunday Afternoon

• Snow totals between 5 - 10 inches depending how far north or south you live

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I shall provide updates as the event unfolds and please comment any questions you may have.

9:12 AM Update - Most recent model runs indicate less snow and more sleet for the region!

9:45 AM Update - Indeed sleeting in Westminster. The sleet is coating the road and could cause slippery travel. Areas in sleet could switch back and forth from snow to sleet throughout the morning and midday.

10:15 AM Update - Snow falling in Westminster/Hampstead, untreated roads are covered in Carroll County

10:45 AM Update - Spotty Sleet in Timonium

12:40 PM Update - Heavy wet snow transitioned to light snow mixing with sleet

1:10 PM Update - Sleet transitioned to rain in Westminster. Areas north of Westminster likely still experience a wintry mix. With temperatures are around freezing, expect more rain mixed with sleet the rest of the afternoon across the county. Road conditions will improve however still exercise caution.