3 DAY SUMMARY (Central Maryland)
SUNDAY
The area saw a brief snow squall this morning. Snow came down moderately and coated the grasses (half inch of snow) and portions of the road. It was a nice surprise for many as sun shone earlier in the morning. Some of the fallen snow will stick around for the snow on Monday/Tuesday.
MONDAY
Morning/Midday - Off and On Light Snow showers
Sunset/Evening - Snow becomes more consistent and steady
TUESDAY
Morning/Midday - Steady snow persists until mid afternoon
EUROPEAN MODEL SIMULATION
Here you can see the main event with the organized swath of snow Monday Night/Tuesday Morning as the low forms up the coast. There will be scattered snow showers on Monday that this low resolution model does not capture. FYI the time stamp is in the top right of the GIF, subtract 5 hours from the Z time. 18 Z = 1300 = 1 PM
The timing of the event is still being discerned between the models and is also something that will have to be watched for on Monday.
IMPACTS
Roads will become covered Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. With the sun down, below freezing temperatures, and preexisting cold pavement temperatures; snow will stick and accumulate on roads, even with light snow rates. With temperatures in the mid 20s throughout the event, road treatments wont be as effective.
Be increasingly cautious as the day progresses on Monday.
Limit travel after sundown on Monday Evening through Tuesday Afternoon.
ACCUMULATIONS
It will snow for a significant amount of time from Monday into Tuesday. Most of these snowy hours will include light snow with rates less than a quarter of snow per hour. This will limit any significant snow accumulations. There will be a widespread blanket of 1-3 inches of snow across the region with some "lucky" areas exceeding 3 inches in the heavier more steady pockets of snow and snow showers.
IN DEPTH SNOW STORY
A cold air mass that brought the short period of snow this morning will settle into the region today. It is at the edge of this cold air aloft where jet stream winds will be fast and pockets of upper air vorticity will cause uplift and light snow showers to form throughout the day Monday. As the day progresses an area of low pressure forms off the coast and rises northward overnight into Tuesday Morning. The formation of the low will serve to organize the precipitation and produce a swath of light to moderate snow over the region. This is when most of the accumulation will happen (Late Monday Night into Tuesday Day).
Roads will support stickage even with light snowfall rates will stick on roads. Air temperatures will be below freezing for the event, dipping to the upper teens on Monday Morning. With snowfall today, the air temperatures should dip slightly lowered than forecasted. With windy conditions, the roads will be surly be cold as winds will evaporate any moisture on the roads taking away heat energy and leaving them even colder.
I will note that some models have the storm moving slower and collaborating more with a significant upper level trough that, as of now, is lagging behind and therefore limiting the storms potential. If this storm does slow down and time up with the upper level energy, then it would increase the upper limits for accumulation. However, for now it seems that the storm will be weaker, and lacking the circulation needed to bring ample moisture northward for a impactful storm. This is something to keep an eye on.
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