I know that there are people out there that check their weather app's weekly forecast at least a few times a day in hopes for an incoming winter storm. It's fun to do this and have hope that more snow is on the way but if the app has a snowflake seven days out or even five days out, it by no means guarantees any sort of snow on that day. But it gives us hope.
I myself like looking at the model runs for 5-10 days out in hope for signs of winter storms. But that's all the value one should give it. That it is a sign. A sign that a winter storm is favorable to form in the region over this time period. A sign that the the set-up across the whole country is putting us in a good position to host a winter storm in the coming days or even weeks.
The upper air pattern is in place
In order to monitor for cold surges, it is important to look at the upper air maps and to pick out patterns in how these air masses are moving. In the upper air map below, the blue areas constitute a cold air trough and red areas constitute a warm air ridge.
Currently, and for the next 2 weeks or so, we have a constant cycle of arctic air (upper air troughs) into the United States. This would set up numerous potential winter storms for our region. Frigid arctic air should dive south four or five times in the next two weeks or so. We will see how it all plays out, but we are likely to get a variety of winter storms in the coming weeks.
What Does This Mean for Maryland?
These surges of cold air create intense temperature difference between air masses as it surges further south. This temperature gradient creates fast upper-level winds along the boundary, stirring up storms to form. Wherever this Jet stream forms, you can expect a winter storm to follow upon it. If these air masses set up in the right areas, the east coast is in for a winter storm.
Insight Into a Classic Maryland Winter Storm
UPPER AIR TROUGH AND JET STREAM Jan 18th 2022
Troughs bring cold air to our area and at the same time creates an intense temperature gradient in the region outlined and therefore enhancing the jet stream. A surface low aka a storm could possibly form on the ascending branch of the jet stream.
RESULTING STORM Jan 18th
This storm is directly related to the image above. You can even see the upper air trough providing cold air by looking at the dashed blue and red lines. The storm itself gains its moisture from the gulf and the ocean. Finally, the storm rides along this trough and up the coast strengthening rapidly due to such an intense trough and jet stream. Furthermore, you can see that Maryland is just outside any substantial periods of snow. This is because the upper air trough is settling in too far eastward, and the jet stream/temperature gradient where the storm forms is also then eastward. If this trough shifts just 50 miles or so west, then we have a blockbuster winter storm setting up.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE POST
There is an upper air pattern in place which favor the formation of winter storms
Learned about Upper Air Masses and the Jet Stream
Understood what Maryland needs for a Winter Storm
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