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Friday Snow

Writer's picture: inglisbriinglisbri

Well this forecast is a fun one. Often times with a disorganized and weak system like this one their impacts are marginal, scattered, and tough to pin down spatially. As of now it seems we are right on the cusp of impactful snow accumulation. With the formation and path of the system, it is not providing ample moisture for a impactful event. It is certain that there will be enough lift with limited moisture to create some precipitation for the general area on Friday morning into the day. However, as the storm consolidates and strengthens off the coast during the day Friday it does tap into a pool of moisture and it will enhance precipitation in a few areas north and east of Baltimore. This is the determining factor of this event, can a surface low pump moisture into Central Maryland and enhance snow rates. As of now it seems "kind of". The low is expected to either form 1) early Friday, yet too weak and too far off the coast to provide any enhancing effect on the region or 2) later on Friday off of the coast, yet too far north which would limit the extent too which moisture is brought into the area. Both scenarios does not provide an impactful event. Things would have to change to increase any confidence in a widespread impactful event.


With that said here is my forecast!


 

Event Timeline on Friday


Midnight - 5 AM - Light snow slowly builds into the area, most evaporates into atmosphere and doesn't reach the ground


5 - 7 AM - Snow begins before sunrise and likely to lay on roads with cold temperatures in the past days


7 - 10 AM - Light snow with off and on bands of moderate snow throughout the morning


10AM - 2 PM - Moderate to Heavy snow band forms north of Baltimore. Carroll County likely to get a short period of Moderate/Heavy snow here (Make or Break point of the event, where exactly does the snow get enhanced?)


2 PM - 7 PM - Widespread snow dissipates in the early afternoon and we are left with a few bands of snow in the afternoon to watch out for


Overall there seems to be many times throughout the day on Friday where the chance for accumulating snow could pose a threat to travel. With that risk, it is reasonable for schools to either delay, early dismiss, or close entirely. In hindsight, the timing of impactful snow bands will either make the call look horrible, or ingenious.


 

NAM and HRRR Models 7 AM TO 5 PM (Slide through the pictures)



HRRR


NAM



SNOWFALL FORECAST


Recent model runs have ramped up the snow intensity across the region, just as what happened with the last storm. I will release a new report later today containing an updated forecast and snow map which will likely be an inch or two increase across the region from what I have above.



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