What's been going on this winter? We started out extremely cold around christmas, then had weeks of above normal temperature and now we seem to be getting back to normal. If I am being honest, this winter has been pretty sad for snow lovers and forecasters alike. We seemingly have had almost perfect set ups for blockbuster storms then as the event gets closer, the set up falls apart and brings us rain. The culprit: Lack of cold air reaching the Mid-Atlantic - extremely simplified.
I will explain this coming storm on Wednesday which has Broadcast Meteorologists sending the word out on snow. With the lack of snow this winter, I imagine views are down for TV meteorologists and they are latching on to whatever event they can get. So, you guessed it, this "snow" on Wednesday is not going to be much at all.
I am going to tell you exactly what I think will happen, then after explain how how it could go differently.
"I believe that areas north of Baltimore will see light snow build in between 5 and 7 AM Wednesday Morning. Snow will become moderate for a short period of time until around 10 AM where there will be a switchover to sleet then rain which will persist into the evening. Snow accumulations will be up to an inch on grassy and elevated surfaces. Some roads in higher elevations under the effect of stronger snow bands will become snow covered during the morning hours. With regards to schools, I believe the morning commute for high school and middle school will be unaffected, however there will be a chance that commute for elementary schoolers will be affected. Saying this, I would not place a delay, early dismissal, or closing for Carroll County Public Schools."
Here is a more comprehensive look at the forecast for tomorrow.
Temperatures will only get down to around 30 degrees early tomorrow morning before the snow arrives. The air above will be dramatically dry causing precipitation beginning after midnight to evaporate into the atmosphere until saturation. This proccess of snow evaporating into the atmosphere actually requires energy or heat, therefore this massive amount of evaporation that will take place to saturate the atmosphere should also cool it substantially below freezing. This will help prolong below freezing temperatures in the atmosphere throughout the morning. This snow evaporating into the air will take several hours, until 5 - 7 AM until snow actually reaches the ground. Cold air through the entire atmosphere should hold in place until 10 AM with some wiggle room. This is the period that will boom or bust snow impacts. How cold will the atmosphere get via evaporation, how long will a cold atmosphere persists, and will snowfall rates be strong enough during this period of time to lay on the road while the sun is up. I believe road temps will be around freezing which could make snow laying on the road up in the air. All in all, if you are traveling between 8 - 11 AM being aware that conditions are marginal for some perilous travel. However, after 12 noon, temperatures and roads will be above freezing and any wintry hazards will have expired.
BLUE AREAS - Brief period of Snow in the morning then changeover to rain late morning. Accumulations less than an inch
PURPLE AREAS - You could get some snow, but it wont be impactful for travel. Little to no accumulations here
GREEN AREAS - All rain
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