Recap and Analysis

Total Snowfall

The storm did over perform for many areas north and west of Baltimore. Firstly, the storm built in earlier than expected. Plumes of its moisture presented itself throughout Pennsylvania and Maryland. As these areas became more and more saturated, (past the 85 % relative humidity point) more vicious bands of snow began to come through as early as 9 PM for areas like Westminster, Frederick, Thurmont, Hagerstown and Germantown and finally moved south and east by midnight to fill in the dry slot that sprawled across Central Maryland. This dry line between precipitation and virga slowly marched south and east leading to the snow accumulation gradient seen here. The areas that were least affected by the dry air reported the highest amounts.

FORECASTED VS ACTUAL ACCUMULATION

Each Image has two "L"s in it to represent the general position and amount of energy the storm has. This was not the actual position of the lowest pressure of the storm.

Forecasted amounts and storm dynamic

With my forecast, I placed more emphasis on coastal development, hence the 3–5-inch area over the eastern shore region. However, the storm was more bullish in its development on land than expected. Higher amounts in the regions north and west were seen where snow initially began to fall and developed further. While this initial swath of precipitation was expected, its energy was forecasted to transfer to the coastal low sooner, bringing these bands of precipitation centered around a coastal low, bringing steady accumulating snow towards Baltimore and Coastal areas which did happen, just not as soon and for not as long.

Radar Indicated Snowfall via The Weather Channel with pin location of Westminster, MD

In reality, a more inland low was responsible for the extra accumulation to the north and west while the coastal low was not as prominent.

RADAR GIF

These images span from 11 PM to 3:30 AM is wheN the majority of snow fell for most of the region. The brightest greens are heavy snow bands, while the blue is light snow.

For Maryland you can see the brighter greens filling into most of the region as the animation begins. Before the start of this animation at 11 PM, the moderate to heavy snow was stalled to the west in Carroll, Frederick and Washington county beginning at 8 PM or so.

You can see the initial dry line that slowly moved east while the coastal low developed around midnight and brought ocean moisture to the area filling the dry slot with snow.

RECAP AND OUTLOOK

Overall, the storm was well behaved. Snow bands stalled in some areas bringing more snow for some, but the storm also had its drier spots leading to less snow due to a later and weaker coastal formation.

Another storm arrives Sunday with ice potential. With snowpack and cold temperatures in place, air by the surface will remain cold as warm air and rain passes overhead. Freezing rain will be eminent until temperatures break the freezing mark by midday. Though the duration of the event will be short, surfaces will be super chilled after days of cold temperatures priming trees, power lines, roads and walkways to be impacted.