WEATHER MODELS
Weather models are a system of math equations that use current atmospheric conditions to plot out future weather. In general, the further out a model plots, the more inaccurate it tends to be. There are thousands of weather models, short range models, long range models and foreign models. Each model has slightly different equations which place more or less weight on certain characteristics of the atmosphere.
Here is the website I use for models
There are five main models or so 1. GFS model (Global Forecasting System) A long-range model sometimes called the "American" model. Good for forecasting for events between 2 - 14 days out. 2. European model Another long-range model with a great reputation for performing well. Good for forecasting 2 - 14 days out. 3. GEM model (Global Environmental Multiscale Model) A medium to long range model sometimes called the "Canadien" model. Good for forecasting 2 - 10 days out. 4. NAM model (North American Model) A short to medium range model. Goof for forecasting 1 - 3 days out. 5. HRRR model (High Resolution Rapid Response) A short-range model with high resolution that factors in subtilties like landscape and bodies of water. Good for forecasting from 0 -1 day out. THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR IN MODELS Trends - At times a model might produce products that trends in a certain direction. When looking for trends, you would compare how the past model runs have plotted out weather conditions for an area and time. Trends could be like the following: Storm track shifting, Storm strengthening and more. Trends are used to analyze how models deal with an event and how its thoughts change on an event. Convergence/Divergence Among Models - When looking at model products it is important to look at other models to see if models agree or disagree. When they agree, models converge on a certain outcome and when they disagree, models diverge on an outcome.
COLD AIR DAMMING
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